For what it's worth

Here are the current bets on tradesports.com for the Oscars. (I guess the way the betting system updates itself these things don't add up exactly to 100%)

Best Picture:
Brokeback - 79.0%
Munich - .9%
Goodnight - .7%
Crash - 21.0%
Capote - 2.4%

Best Actress:
Witherspoon - 80.0%
Huffman - 19.9%
Theron - 1.6%
Dench - 1.4%
Knightley - 1.8%

Best Actor:
Hoffman - 83.9%
Ledger - 8.7%
Phoenix - 6.8%
Strathairn - .9%
Howard - 1.7%