Wednesday, August 04, 2004

Did Kerry get a post-convention bounce?

Well, it depends who you ask.

According to Gallup/CNN/USAToday's survey of likely voters, Kerry was ahead of Bush by 1 percentage point before the convention, but behind by 4-6 points after the convention. Ouch. But according to the WashingtonPost/ABC poll, Kerry was behind by 4 points before the convention, and ahead by 2 points after the convention.

In two other polls that were conducted just after the convention, and looked at registered voters (as opposed to likely voters), Kerry is now ahead by 4 points (American Research Group), or 5 points (CBS).

So WTF?

In any case, even by the Washington Post numbers, Kerry's bounce was among the smallest in recent history.

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