You bet

Regular readers of bsom may know that I'm in to looking at futures markets (betting) as a way to predict the, uh, future. That didn't turn out so well for the football playoffs, but whatever. We've got an election coming up, and academic studies have shown that the futures markets do a pretty good job predicting outcomes -- they generally do better than polls in the months before an election (in the very final days before an election, the polls become about as accurate as the betters).

On Tradesports.com, the Republicans currently have a 39% chance of retaining a majority in the House, and a 74% change of retaining the Senate.

The bets on the Iowa Electronic Markets are vaguely similar, with the GOP having a 42% change of retaining the House and about a 71% change of holding the Senate.

Here are the IEM links for the House and Senate betting history, continually updated. The blue line is the chance that the Dems win; the Green and Red lines, when added together, are the chance that the Republicans win.

Oh, BTW, don't forget to vote. Especially if you live in a more interesting state than this one.